Let me keep it simple

Monday 5 January 2015

I don’t believe in luck.


“Bonyeza Ushinde! Today is the last day to win the Grand prize of Sh. 5 million+Pick-Up. SMS your name to 29555 and it could be you.”

"BORESHA MAISHA NA EQUITY BANK. Your phone number has won Sh. 100000, for more details contact MR MUTHAURA 0788788425, do not pay anything." 

These are two SMSes I received on my phone on the same day. The Safaricom one was legit (sender O720000000) but the second one was not (personal number sent it). I bet many have succumbed to the ever cunning fraudsters who are crafty and conniving in coming up with messages that easily carry us away. They think each nigh and day on how  to con and outwit us; we who are susceptible.

Safaricom has carried out the promotion in such a way that it entices and wheedles individuals into buying more airtime to call or access the net. But after participating in the past five years without rewards, I have decided never to participate in their promotions again. It is like chasing after a car in motion. Unless the driver stops, you never will catch the car. You lose, but in this world, there is losing and gaining. The two sides after tossing a coin in the air.

The first time I ever participated in promotions was when I was in class 6 (the one I recall). That was over a dozen years ago. My dad being a heavy shopper during Christmas had bought goods and as such he was given more than thirty coupons to fill. Out of curiosity, I told him I wanted to win, even if it was a pair scissors.

He let me fill all the coupons with my name and as a child, I had to wait. A year passed and we were back to the same place, heavy shopping and coupons. I let my mum do the filling. This time round though, one was sure of winning something, she won some cheap thermos flask that never lasted a month.

In campus, there was a time we did shopping for more than Sh. 15,000. I let my friend fill all the coupons and I frankly told him that his was an effort in futility. He filled more than 15 coupons. Luckily, he still got more than 150 points which he could still redeem as I had no shoppers card. I remember asking him whether he had received information on the coupons he had filled, but to date he is still waiting.

The question that begs is: How do people win in these promotions. In Basic Mathematics, there is unit called Combinations and Permutations. They gave me an idea as to why it is very hard to win in such promotions. The probability of winning is very low. Most people hate mathematics though, Lawyers and political scientists to be precise. Yet they never evade it. Mathematics is part of life. Period

In the case of Safaricom which has 20 million subscribers, the probability of winning 5e-8, that is, 0.00000005 chance of winning. Even if the process is very transparent and as white as snow, still the chances of winning is very low. Methinks the promotion is meant to attract more subscribers since Safaricom has rivals and the promotions also act as a marketing strategy for the firm. As promotions are an easy bet to ensure more people participate in the products they sell which translates into more money.

There have been rumors being peddled that those who win have some close affiliation with the top managers who work in cohort with the potential winners covertly to ensure they also get their part of the bargain. But as far as I know, I treat such gimmicks as such, rumors. The chance above is my drive at this. Luckily or unfortunately, I have never seen someone I know who won big money or a car or a house.

I also have a bone to pick with Safaricom. My airtime never lasts for the intended duration it is meant to be. There are numerous subscriptions I usually find out that I have subscribed to which really wastes my hard earned money. 

Other than that, they (Safcom) have programmed their software machines in such a way that you will find your airtime never last that long and when you inquire about the same, they normally have a ready plausible explanation as to where your money went to. What’s more, you will realize that your airtime is billed in a way that within the blink of an eye if you frequently call, you will hear the irritating sound of the lady who says, “Sorry you don’t have enough credit (sic).” I wish I had subscribed to the cheaper prepaid version.

Thanks to Zuku, I don’t spend more on data. Safaricom knows how to squeeze from us since more Kenyans use Safaricom as a gateway towards accessing the net. They however need to look at the bigger picture. They may not fall now but they may create firms that want to sell products that customers feel they get a bargain for what they pay for. The likes of Apple and Dell computers knew what the consumers wanted and stole from HP a big market base and ever since, HP has never recovered. Currently, there is a very  crucial and unavoidable fact in the world; it is run by ideas.

In Zuku you kind of get the bargain for your money. What remains for the firm is to spread its tentacles by widely covering the country.

Safaricom mandarins know where the big billions come from. They know the essence and leeway availed to them due to capitalism and how to ensure they run the industry as an advantaged firm in an oligopolistic market. In relation to game theory, they have good strategists who have the knowledge of the mobile industry on the back of their palms. 

Their interactive decision making skills have outwitted even the quintessential Airtel that is widely networked in their mobile phone operations in the African continent. Those dudes and dudettes  at the body corporate know how to apply Nash equilibrium and the payoff are billion shillings in terms of profit they receive at the end of every financial year. 

Big up to those brilliant minds that have redefined the corporate world in Kenya and helped the firm to become the best in less than twenty years. Not even the government can help you if you don’t help yourself. The government only creates the environment, but in terms of autarky, you are on your own if a firm.

Luck. I once wished my friends luck and they got me all wrong. The dictionary I used or the connotation I implied was success. They misinterpreted it for chance. They were mad with me for wishing them luck. Luck to them was something fortuitous and unexpected plus in a way demeaning having toiled and moiled to make it their then designation.
Luck. Definition: "a purposeless, unpredictable and uncontrollable force that shapes events favorably or unfavorably for an individual, group or cause." - Wikipedia

Luck is chance. It only happens to those who never prepare. Preparation is essential in this world. Failure after effective and efficient preparation only means you got something small wrong or you may have misinterpreted the task at hand which resulted in the mishap. 

I my opine, it is pertinent to live with a firm sense of purpose and being able to control your lives in a prudent way even though there are very many unpredictable aspects of life.

I don’t believe in luck in my life. Even those who win in promotions usually invest a lot in order to win. They invest their time and money in the process. Again I know of a television that wanted audience and used this bait of promotions of winning money and alas many Johns and Janes participated. What they never knew was that they were helping the station gain audience, in turn the station would show the statistics of the network coverage to potential advertisers and that meant the TV channel smiled all the way to the bank having only used a fraction to pay winners of their promotions.

Our gullibility and love for quick riches means that we are held hostage by those who engage our limbic systems and satiate our emotions to the extent that we easily fall prey to their rhetoric in the event we never carefully internalize what we aim at in instances where we have a false sense of control over our decisions and actions.

While others are sleeping, Bill Gates is minting cash. He can decide to sleep anytime. He never did sleep adequately when he was a teenager and his reason for dropping out of Harvard was because he already knew what the professors were going to teach. He spent most of his time in the university library as a teen. This was in the dead of the night and in the wee hours of the night when it was empty to become such a genius. So there is a correlation of  how books and  brilliance can make one a financial success, Right.

Bill Gates also wanted Mark Zuckerberg to work for him while he was still in High School it is alleged. His scouts had noticed him. But Zucks knew what he wanted. He has something that everyone at some point in life will have or has. Facebook. I will re-watch the movie about Zucks sometimes later to gain a deeper insight.


The many hours you put in something never go to waste. They build you to be able to be your own person. Life is not about freelancing. It has more to do with making the individual in you a success more that what people think. When that time comes, you will blossom like a mustard seed grows into a very big tree of all the other in a garden.

If I believed in luck, I would have tried out the promotions. But sometimes, there is the choice of making someone or building yourself. Time has taught me never to participate in things that never involve wit. Luck is about never preparing and aiming for the best. Not me. I never seat and wait. Like a matador, I take the bull by its horns.

So next time I will be trying out the promotions, no I plan to try the lottery- the patience bit is what I am after-, I will do it with the sole reason of writing something about the promotion/lottery I am engaging in. As opposed to other schemes, lottery has some predictability, and my purpose will have been known since I will control my chances at winning.

Something about continuity in a venture is that you get to know the tricks of the game and trade plus you never know, you might just win big. I will not be wasting my money though, I will be on a mission to increase my knowledge on how things work in this small globe called earth.

SITUONANE.
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