Let me keep it simple

Thursday 26 May 2016

BETTING, ITS A HUSTLE


The other day, my pal challenged me to come up with all the possible outcomes that you can be able to play on Sportpesa in order to win the coveted jackpot. The zeal in me got down to googling and programming and sadly, it's not as easy as we had thought. Men, being this jobless dudes, we had thought that we could easily come up with possible outcomes through permutations. As such, we took our calculators and worked out the math. Sadly, to get the possible outcomes, you need to raise the three games by the number of outcomes. If it is two games, there are a possible nine games. So for thirteen games, there are 1,594,323 possible right outcomes. Which means you need 160 million in order to win between 1 and 40 million if theoretically put. Not worth it, Right?


Damn. It looks like my dream of betting has gone to the dogs. Now I only have to concentrate on some other stuff. Even though I came up with the codes to run in the model, it was not able to fit into Microsoft Excel. Excel, unfortunately only allows for 1,048,576 cells, row-wise. I did run some input on VBA and stored it as a macro so that I could possibly view the output on Excel. Then I saw that debug error. Now I need to find a way of importing the model directly into an Excel Data Model as it can handle more than 2 million cells in a row.


What prompted my friend to ask me if I can be able to execute the outcomes? Since we had resorted to being full-time students (ideally, doing a daunting professional course can make you think you need all that time but you don’t), we sometimes found time to engage in garish banter over lunch just to sate our quest for being overnight millionaires. And in our parochial senses, we thought of investing some cash and voila, we would be smiling all the way to the bank. But the gods were not on our side. The first setback arose because we did not know how to execute the model even though he knew I had taken up some courses on programming and excel online.


So as not to shame myself, I had sleepless nights thinking how I could be able to solve the problem of aiding in us becoming millionaires. I even forgot that I had a mountain of an exam in due course and made YouTube, various betting blogs, programming sites and the knowledge I had in excel into use. After two nights of trial and error, I was able to come up with a program by modelling a seven outcome game. (You should have seen my Eureka! debut). Then a problem arose with regard to time. Even if you have all the time to play the outcomes, it will take you more than a week if betting on the games individually if you factor in you need sleep, toilet breaks, meal breaks and monotony.  My advice on this was to form a gang of like-minded pals to bet all viable games after eliminating outcomes that will not work. Like, say if Spain played with Kenya, you are sure Kenya will lose. So your bet for the game is a win for Spain.


If you choose a win for this game. You automatically reduce the chances of failure by a third. Ideally, if you can eliminate eight games which you are cock sure about in a jackpot, then you will remain with five games in the model to work with. That means with five games, the possible number of times you can play is 243 games. Those games multiplied by KSh. 100, you are sure to get your return on investments. However, you have to be contended with match fixing and the possibility of the team you had so much hope on not being in shape and therefore drawing or losing. Because football can be like an earthquake, unpredictable, right. Again, the games that are usually placed for a bet are usually very tricky to predict, zimekauka mbaya.  


So we are still stuck in a rut. I am still looking for mechanisms of running the codes in a data model as my friend looks for funds so that we can sit down and brainstorm on how to win ‘intellectually’. Given that I also performed Monte Carlo simulation on the outcomes, I am sure you can smile all the way to the bank if you muster how to work with the model given that we have been betting on a trial and error basis.


As for yours truly, I have to learn how to bet since I am not well versed with the betting industry. I should also not take for granted football noise. Noise in this case means the possibility of match-fixing, and all the various information that influences the outcome of a game. Albeit to counter this betting institutions, one only needs brainy football stalwarts who know how to predict successfully and you are good to go. This is after performing historical simulations.


Is it worth it to bet? I have been a firm believer that ridiculing that which has become a system will not eliminate it but will propagate it due to the advertisement it gets whether adverse or not. Plus, betting is for those we call risk seeking. Even though there are many people who are loss averse, the sheer aspect of not knowing the outcome makes it quite something due to the adrenaline that you might win. If my mental institutions serve me right, one day I will model a winning outcome with just 27 games. It’s possible.


Hasta La Vista Baby.

[Picture Source: My own]
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Friday 20 May 2016

CORONA AND COROLLA


There is a phrase that goes, ‘Life is a series trial and error’. I have made errors and realized that even though they are times you regret; they serenely make you stronger. That means there are moments in life you need to live a dog’s life and think that you have wasted the master ball. Then there are those moments when you have overcome the manly errors and people love that you have made it and hence love your association. They never know how close you were to giving up, they never know the sacrifices you make each day just to ensure you see to it that your dream comes alive. There are those vain moments, those you never want to talk about. There are those moments that you should talk about, because society has dictated so. Society only loves successful people. As a result, never tell it when you have down moments, just say how easy it has been. Because that is what the regular guy wants to hear, if you talk about the struggles, then you will create enemies, and we don’t want to be loners, we want to be loved. We want to be in a society where we are accepted. However, when the day comes to a close, so shall you lie. As the Swahili proverb goes.


Today, I want to outpour my frustrations to my current bae. I don’t know if that is the right name, nonetheless, it applies to her since I spend more time than average intervals being worried about her, thinking about our union and the probable rewards I will get if this union materializes. Which will take ages, and ages. But the end of it all is that if I stick around and never give up, I will smile all the way to the bank as opposed to being drained off and being a sponger. I had to steal this phrase just for her and it goes. “I am sure this is worth what I am going through. I don't want to waste this opportunity, or I won't get another one. But this is my choice . . . so I have to choose wisely and be decisive.”


Because of the struggles, I have decided to write a letter to my bae. It does not mean that I have to suffer every time I am with her. She has made me go places, which I will continue going and see many more as time rolls. But here is the letter.


Dear Bae,


In a flash of shock and dread, I did twitch awake, finding myself in the bathroom as I had to wake up very early in the morning today where I did wash off the slumber. I had lost sleep, because the alarm never rung. It was those wee hours when the thief strikes. I am also from a short siesta, having got tired and realized that I need to take a breather because all work without play is a disaster in waiting. You know that the reason why I woke up was because of you. You mean more to me now than ever. I don’t know whether this should be a love message or a dirge. You will be forced to read in between the lines to figure out.


For the past few weeks, I have been forced to take drastic measures. It’s like a newlywed couple. They have to forget about the bachelor days and start acting married. They have to take time to ensure they nurture their relationship so that they withstand those who try to rock their boat. Like those newlyweds, we have started our journey. When we shall celebrate or tie the union is virgin. Given that I want to finish this journey in a record time, I have been forced to forego those that I should not have. But I have to let it move across me, seize every movement of locking my limbs and emotions in place, long enough for it to cleave and claim another part of my being.


You see, I long forgot to party five months ago because of you. I stopped hitting the bottle and even joined church. But amid all this, I have not stopped being worried. The sole reason why I eschew liquor is because of the energy effect. Recently at an event organised in one of the ritzy hotels in the city, I got to know why I have to keep that energy. There is this economist who argued that interest rates are like alcohol, you feel the impact later on after having enjoyed. Let me be terse, I know interest rates are too academic or economic, so I will tell the alcohol bit.


You see, when you drink alcohol, at around midnight, you usually become super active, dancing moves you would never pull when sane, peeing and just feeling good and energetic. You never question where all the energy has come from. It’s not that alcohol gives you energy, its only that you have utilized tomorrow’s energy before its intended time. It’s also like having a given portion of food to eat which you should divide for lunch and supper. If you consume it all at once, you will have yourself to blame if hunger pangs take the better of you and you have no victuals to bribe the marauding enzymes and amylases in the digestive system. Similarly, ale has the net effect of metamorphosing into a hangover. And what does that mean?  You will be spent the next day. And for a person like me, it could magnify because it also means less of partaking meals resulting in losing so many hours. Which I never want to. Now you know why I have stopped drinking liquor, right.


You see, there are these test I have been taking to find out if I can pass the minimum threshold to be with you. Actually, I have realized that I need to go an extra mile, even though I am writing this letter, it highly contributes to wasting precious time. But I am not, I am not wasting time. I am investing it because it’s worthwhile to go back and find out where you have been because pictures cannot give meaning illustrations like words. They may not tell that I spend more than three hours seated patiently somewhere just to test myself if I qualify to be with you. In that regard, I have decided to go through the torture of failing each time. Only once have I met the minimum requirement. The rest of the time, I have been scoring average grades. You know that it is my responsibility to check myself if I am prepared for you or not. And it looks like I should keep preparing. Till I succeed, I am not relenting. Rome in essence was not build in a day. And it looks like I have to sacrifice more days and forgo luxuries in preparing.


But the most outstanding reasons why being in love with you is a demand is because I have ended up forgetting about my first love- scripting. I have mused a couple of times of the untold stories that have not penned just because I have been betrothed to you. In soliloquy, I sometimes talk to her. Though occasionally, I try to revive our checkered union to no avail. It’s like am now captive to you. I don’t remember tying the knot with those small handcuffs we put on our ring fingers in a civil or religious ceremony. Sometimes I hear her crying of neglect, painfully and with sorrow. She looks sad and forlorn. Inside this thing called a blog I have left her. So that people can come and check her out and comfort her, just to give her solace. She never complains, but something inside tells me she is hurting. She wants me back. I feel like taking her, but those many days I have spent with you will not go down in futility. You know I mean it. If I ever decide to get back with her……………, you I mean it. Reminds me of that rap by G-Easy. Looking at how neglected she is, I feel sorry. Its human to be so. Yet I have not done that which I am supposed to. And as a result, I have decided to check her out today. Just to tell her she is not alone. That I will take care of her in some other way.


Being in a union with you is like being married to a nagging woman even though I have no idea what the institution of marriage is like. I have lost touch with reality. I no longer love that which all and sundry loves. Even taking up some small tasks has become an issue. I am even selective in what I want to do. You have your own demands and also require me to be like the good old husband, be there to deliver. But you also know that I am jobless. And having read widely, I realized that it is not easy getting a job in the industry I desire, not that its easy anywhere else. It’s not. I have to try to be the best in the meantime. However, frustrations and lethargy usually gets the better of me. It has even got to that point I am a stranger to many people. Even my immediate neighbours never see me and they wonder where I have been to. Likewise, my peeps are sometimes forced to call me just to find out if I am doing right. Obviously, I am fine. But its lonely. I feel like am an under achiever.


My job, my only job is to preserve myself and I do it very well. You remember after a small stint working I decided to relieve myself of duty. Sometimes I do have few regrets, but materially, I feel like I have achieved that which I could not have in the event I had stuck around. Let me hope that you’ll let me crack the code to riches so long as I swear my loyalty, so long as I bid farewell to the petty feel good moments that don’t last. However, what is for sure is that you have taught me discipline. I have to stick to a rote. I have to keep showing up and that is the essence of it all. Showing up is like what Malcolm Gladwell authored differentiates the regular guy from the achiever. Even if I do not get a job, I have learnt so much. That with dedication, you can be what you want, as long as you forget what others think. Join forces with likeminded people and forge on ahead.


I just love the fact that you have opened some doors that I am yet to take advantage of. I am not the zetetic type, I am no the go getter type, but I love to continue getting better so that when I get there, when it is my time, it will be a smooth sail. Guess my time will come and I will get there, where you have intended me to be. In fact, I must acknowledge that I have materially grown intellectually. I know so much yet I have no opportunity to relay back yet I am an upright being. I love the monopoly I now have. It’s very material. Even when I am not in a position to fend for some things, I am contented in the short while that I am bequeathed with gem. Knowledge that is. I have also tested the frustration of being jobless and have come to appreciate that you have to find ways to mitigate and ameliorate.


Do you know how many hangouts I have ceased going for even after receiving an invite? You need to realize that I am not taking you for granted. And like a Eurobond beneficiary, I will be there for you. Never mind that Kenyans talk about Eurobond yet they never know what it is. That we were loaned and as such we have to pay those bondholders at a premium is not a joke. Since we are not investment grade and because of credit and market risk they need compensation for loaning a third world country in form of higher coupons. And as tax payers, we have to pay for it whether the infrastructure will come to materialize or not. Anyway. Like I intimated, I left partaking of ale. You know ale and energy don’t go hand in hand. Plus, there is the possibility of killing those brain cells that I should keep safe. I know some of the decisions are not sane. Like how can a grown up guy be committed so much that he cannot take a break to engage with pals. Ideally, I have become a societal misfit. I don’t know if am headed in the right direction. But ideally, I am committed to get where I want to be. Which means I need to take a break. Even though I thought I would have done better by writing even more. In either case.

Hasta La Vista Baby.

[Picture Source: My own]
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Monday 2 May 2016

A LONG SHORT


‘People hate to think bad things happening. So they always underestimate their likelihood.’

I love poetry. Out of sheer wit and passion because poetry is what is synonymous to derivatives in the financial miasma. They can be short, or long and are challenging to decipher. Similarly, you can long or short a derivative and they are not easy to decipher because they are esoteric. So yes, the two positions (long or short) are mutually exclusive.


Mmmmmmmmh! I bet you are at sea right now. If not, then you know about ‘The Big Short.’ Perhaps you also have also watched the series ‘Billions’. They both have investment grade rating in IMDB or rotten tomatoes. Sorry, they have high rating. The other day, I talked to some kin about betting. There is a person who did bet a company on the probability of a certain minnow clinching the title of the most followed league. Bet the guy has few hours to reaping big based on the high chances of his bet making a market.  Never mind that some pundits with marginal gen have trashed the ‘The Big Short’ as being irrelevant.


Life is a gamble, you either lose, win or maintain the status quo. If you bet against nothing, never think of making a kill. If you bet on the other hand, you either win or lose. There no sitting on the fence. The biggest gainers are those who act based on wit, yet there are some more who stumble upon gain based on sheer lack. Obviously, you know that the latter never smile because the probity of some prudent guy reaping from their idiocy is more than likely. Reason why the world allows for equity and not equality. See, equality has ‘al’, let’s assume that those two letters denote ‘all’ which we are used to. Equity on the other hand is aimed at moving towards equality. In other words, it is a subset of equality.


If you have ever done something, you know all well that it is never easy achieving the desired results. In economics, you know about insatiable human wants.  But we are all aiming at breaking even. When we consider the margin to achieve pleasant and abnormal results we either backtrack or advance. If we advance, we achieve results.  Those that make you smile sheepishly and feel like you are indeed a winner above all other immortal beings. Recall back when you were in high or primary school, didn’t you feel on top of the world when you scored the best results above everyone else. Then years later, you find that guy you used to beat doing well and you feel like asking him for a favour because you have hit a rock bottom.


‘It aint what you don’t know that that gets you into trouble.’


I decided to weed some kales on our small garden the other day. The guy we had assigned the duty was kind of, ‘I won’t soil my hands yet I can make easy bucks somewhere else.’ When it gets to that point where you are begging, you usually find an alternative. Why not try it yourself? Unless the issue is rocket science, you have the option of taking the bull by its horns. I went to till the garden after a five-year hiatus and guess what? You guessed it right, I managed to finish weeding it but not after feeling like I was pulling a tooth.


First, there was clearing the overgrown live fence with a blunt panga that took up so much time I felt like I was whistling in a moonless night but I managed to finish because of the few tricks that come as a result of spending some time in the shags. Then there was weeding out the shrubs and since I never did agriculture in high school, I had no idea whether I removed symbiotic or poisonous weeds. And tilling while it is a rainy season is a faux pas. I never had an idea it would be terrible. The ground is usually sticky and it takes so much time because mounds of soil sticks on the hoe so that you need to much energy to cut through the ground if you don’t remove the soil. But it’s also a plus given that you only hit the ground once and you are good to go if there are no mounds. Apparently, you need to safeguard your eyes because you will intermittently have soil jetting into your eyes which means you have to adorn an eye gear as a safety measure.


In the long run, I made it. I finished tilling the land and also leveling the fence to my able best. Whether it was to standard, I am not giving a damn because there is no ISO to certify my work. Given that I was doing it to kill time, time that resulted from getting bored as a result of perusing. Because perusal is what resulted in me deciding to watch a movie. And I could easily relate with the jargon in ‘The Big Short’ because of having this privileged gen. Ideally, what drove me to tilling the land was because I was conned. Which we do once in a while. Like some guy may sell KICC just like Victor Lustig sold the Eiffel Tower.


Hitherto, I had never wanted to till but I saw it as some form of revenge. I must have been very bitter. There is this phony Facebook page that gave me hopes of finding the job of my dreams. But not everything is real as it turns out. Luckily, I never succumbed to their luscious connivery in terms of parting with sums of cash because I will never pay to be engaged in a job. A day later, I found an SMS I had not subscribed to directing me where to find jobs. Men the struggle is real.


You see, when you are sometimes in need of a job, you always think all the opportunities that come about are genuine. You seize them as they come. However, they are never the best opportunities. The best opportunities are those you initiate. Those that you have done some reliable research through carrying out feasibility studies (I loved the way guys who reaped big from short selling of CDOs and MBSes in The Big Short smiled all the way to the bank did their research). But we all fail to seize opportunities. Like every other bugger, I want security. That of being in a job knowing full well I will be paid at the end of the month. Yet when am paid, I don’t invest. I consume all the income forgetting that a rainy day is nigh. Or I should invest after doing some valuations of the investment I am to venture in.


The theory of everything. Can the youth forget about breaking bad to focus on breaking the illusion that they are just a bunch of couples who want to merry and never aid in contributing to the nations growth? That’s a fallacious argument BTW. Anyway, when you are in a quest for something, you will always find those things that relate to what you do and they contribute to ameliorating your ken in the field of perpetuation. Someone called it 10,000 hours’ rule. Some one hand me Outliers, authored by Malcolm Gladwell.


Hasta La Vista Baby.


[Picture Source:  My Own]
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