TSUNAMI

“Cheer up, things might get …………”

That’s the slogan of our boss back at work. Every time he utters those words, something is usually cooking. I usually never know how the line should end but most colleagues usually say they might get ‘worse’. On the other hand, I usually think they might get ‘better’. In the sense that I try to see an opportunity even when all seem to be gloomy and circumstances suggesting that the worse times are more than imminent.

The banking industry has undergone a radical shift in the way has been operating in the recent past. There is a Kenyan mentality of living in denial because we are used to situations remaining the same. We never want to accept change. When they come, they sometimes catch us unawares because the imminent impact is not taken into consideration. That means there are causalities who sack is at the mercy of the human resource.

Allow me to allude to the possible crisis that was envisioned during the Brexit. At that time, I was busy preparing for my exams and because I had got tired of perusal, I decided to pour over some gen on investments online to buffer the academic knowledge than I was gaining through ebooks. I noticed a plebiscite that was to take place in Britain, it was to be held in few months. It was still hot news and I shared the same tidings on my LinkedIn profile.

The reason why I shared the information was because I was among the doubting Thomas’s as to the possibility of Britain exiting the European Union. Given that I love statistics, I closely followed the survey and it was a close to call poll. Those for an exit took the day. However, as opposed to us Kenyans where we never look at the financial impact of a move we make, the World was prepared for either scenario with most thinking the status quo would prevail.

I remember reading an article where retired analysts were recalled from their superannuation or wherever they were secluded in to go aid in containing the debilitating effects of a possible rundown in the financial markets. Let me surmise on this because I have shaky facts from the internet. The London market is the largest when it comes to forex. It accounts for more than twenty present of the same in the world. Given that the pound is the strongest currency in the whole world, there was going to be devastating rippling effects which needed to be monitored lest the world succumbs to a financial crisis only reminiscent to the 2008 meltdown.

In the long run, the Brexit being a world changer, the situation that was delicate was able to be ameliorated by mitigating the effects which would have led to a crisis.

The scenario is almost similar to the Kenyan case of interest rates being capped (in economics, it’s called ceiling). Previous attempts to cap interest rates flopped because of reasons that can be presumed to be economic in the sense that there will always be imbalances between the quantity demanded and the quantity supplied when there is an interest rate ceiling. Then net effect is that productivity will be affected because the loan book of most banks has been nonperforming which has led to a scenario where standing orders are not accepted anymore. Banks only allow for a check off system between the bank and the employer where they do not have to undergo the torture of finding no money in an individual’s bank account who owe them given that some people may forfeit their obligations by withdrawing all the income from their account rendering the standing orders void.

There is also the brown paper argument that as long as the legislators are culpable to easily being oiled, they could easily be bank rolled by some banks not to pass the bill and ensure the status quo prevails.

Hitherto, there were staff who were thinking that the president would not accent to the Banking Bill because he has interests in the banking sector. The day he signed the bill, he aided in bringing the country at par with what was witnessed in the developed world long ago because interest rates have a ceiling to reduce on banks turning to being shylocks literally. I had initially thought that banks were prepared for the imminent repercussions. On the contrary they were caught unawares.

It is at this point that they have returned back to the boardroom to strategize on how to reduce on some products and gain on some. As for the bank I work for, there was an imminent tsunami that came in the sense that the parent company was going to walk away. That was devastating but what is now irking is the fact that some heads have to roll. It may start with this blogger who was intending to use the avenue to further his people skills and possibly add onto the experience of working for a multinational company.

I remember watching how the staff who worked for Lehman Brothers were exciting from their trading and various offices after the bank went under after the recent financial meltdown that turned into a boon for the investment banks that remained in the industry on ‘The Big Short’. That’s how some of us will be at the end of the month given that resizing is a must. It has come to us on the pretext of change. We have to accept it whether we like it or not. Those who fail to change will be like the once juggernaut of the computer world, HP. It has been struggling for the last part of the decade with dwindling sales and probable capital flight because of the business as usual mentality.

For quite some time, banks have always been very conservative. They have been making profits which looked farfetched because you need to ensure you act is right to attract investors who want a share through dividends, failure of which they will shift base to industries that have a performing balance sheet.

There is this theory in economics that the higher the demand the higher the price will be. That’s from an investment perspective. However, the theory of demand and supply states that the lower the price the higher the demand. Given that most people end up mimicking the behaviours of top investors in the country in which they are in, the result is either herding or information cascade.

Anyway, I love investments. I also love it when you have a basis for making a decision which should be forecasted whether or not the result will be favouring or impeding the strides achieved. As a matter of fact, it should be prudent to have analysts who will look at various scenarios to advice accordingly on the way forward before a given scenario comes into force.

As for the banks, they should have projected this very early on. There are people who are paid to idle around checking mails and attending meetings to strategize without using serious statistical data. Already, the shares of various banks are plummeting and they will continue doing so for the next couple of days before the situation turns alluring again. Which reminds me that there are contrarian investors who will reap big once the banks have put their act together.

I presume that in the event banks in Kenya had done exactly what the big banks in the world had done on the days preceding the enactment of the Banking Bill into law as the big banks had done by monitoring the situation day and night without rest during Brexit, the net effect would have been manageable. Some risks would have been reduced and mitigation measures taken in the short term to ensure the situation does not deteriorate like it has done almost going to the dogs.

What’s petrifying is the fact that there are some employees in the banking sector whose lives will never be the same again. Just when the sector had picked up and they were enjoying the fruits is when they have to face the axe. It’s worse for those who were raking in millions and had no alternative source of income. Such individuals may have taken mortgages, bought fuel guzzlers, registered to be members of posh clubs where they pay an arm and leg to sustain the status quo, some may have even taken their tots to the best international schools in the country where the curriculum is Bri’sh as a show of might. 

I guess the individual whose fate hangs on the balance is my immediate boss. Being the guy in charge of individuals who were doing credit cards only, it looks like the scenario will be grim before it turns attractive in the short term. I must say that I was among the few guys who got the privilege of being feted by him for having made sales before the card business was discontinued until further notice. Just like the others in the business, he does not know his fate. I remember listening to his pastime and felt like working for the bank for some time to get to a better position that comes with perks before I roll my sleeves and call it a day.

Like the guy is a member of a golf club, occasionally goes for exotic holidays, loves outdoor activity every weekend, raves during the weekdays in various high end clubs in town and still never realizes that it is payday. As opposed to him, I easily monitor the days because by midmonth, I am usually so beat up financially that I cannot easily cough a K for other obligations without feeling a pinch. He is even planning of going for the Malindi skydive yet he is barely 40. That’s kind of enviable especially when you are doing it with your own bucks.

As I wait for my fate which again is at a limbo, I am awed at the much I have learnt for the little while I have been working with many people in one room, though I will miss them. There are those who tell you stories they have gone through you feel like they would pen the same down and give it to you to update on your blog because they encourage and you realize you have yet to go through the worst scenarios.

Like a very sweet colleague told me of how she was able to get a first class yet there was a time her child broke her leg after landing from two floors while she was revising for exams. It was almost the same period she had delivered her last baby and had to go for exams, pick her tot after exams to go and take care of her other baby in the hospital who had broken a leg. Yet she still scored straight A’s during that semester which is not a mean feat while undergoing all that frustration and stress.

There is also this colleague who was seduced by a certain lady neighbour who was HIV positive in the ‘ploti’ they lived but since he was aware of her status after stumbling upon a note book where she had written about how her travail with the virus, he decided not to be amorous by putting his family also at risk. The lady had gone to his room with a night dress while his wife had gone to shags in hope that she would lure him but God has a way of protecting his people.

What encouraged me the most is a colleague I sit next to who told me that we are not going to be exiting but continuing with our jobs. She narrated a certain anecdote of a certain lady who dreamt that she will be eating the ripe fruits with her husband who was due for promotion. The promotion came with training in the forest where his life was not going to be guaranteed given it was always a risky venture as his hubby was a cop. The husband never went to the forest and was instead attached within the training institution at a senior level and they moved to a sole house where there was an avocado tree and they would sit down and relish when he was free from the daily hustle. It’s these kind of miracles that makes us strong

That’s life, whether or not I will be exciting from the scene, there is so much I have learnt. Obviously, even if I stay, it will never be the same again. I will have to reorganize myself before the ax comes calling. Given that this will be another long stretch; I am upbeat that I will still come out strong. Life in itself is a risk; the risk starts at conception. So as I mull over what waits yours truly, allow me to end with my signature phrase.

Hasta La Vista Baby.

[Picture Source: Google Images]

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THOSE STUPID LITTLE IMPS

There are times you get a weird kind of feeling that things will not be alright. You are jittery and uncontrollable only that you are not cognizant of that which is causing you inside panic. Outside, you look quite steadfast and unshaken. Like everything is fine and this is just a sojourn you have to pass through as a phase. When you try to rest, you just find that thoughts are coalescing within that which is making you uncomfortable. You already understand why Jay Z rapped about 99 problems. And you just want to go on holiday and forget all about the tribulations that are afflicting then you face them later on.

However, they are trials that you have to go through as an important phase in life. They make the individual in you unfaltering having gone through hell. Without them, you never grow. You will remain held up because life is about experiencing those doleful occasions and dreadful moments. Those that torment and even though you want to inebriate yourself to a stupor, you remember that there are repercussions. Those that prevent you from sliding from aberration. This world is uncanny, you need to exploit it at a slow pace. Never condescending because you never know when your downfall will surface. For when it does, the cohesive and adhesive forces that hold the fabric together within you may devastatingly succumb in a manner that is unbearable like the tower of Babel.

Sometimes, you easily want to have that financial freedom to pay for the things that make your life a marvel. Like vanishing from the people who matter most to you or heading to the coast for a genial extravaganza. A holiday you are not able to finance, since time immemorial, you have only been conversed by this Kenya phrase, ‘Uchumi ni mbaya’. Studies you have committed yourself, are also holding you back and a pending court case prevents you from being a fugitive. And you earnestly want to go and watch the series ‘Fugitive’ to learn the ways of an outlaw. Pulling such stunts will be disastrous. You may go six feet under even before you knew it because you never know how trigger angry the boys in blue are.

Again the situation is aggravated by your woman, (she has however refused you call her so). The one you think is under the tutelage of her more experienced godmother guiding her on the other side by detailing her on the art of being slippery by every hook and crook to try and find out if you are serious enough with her. But we are in the 21^st century. Playing difficult is no longer fashionable. Relationships have become like buying shoes at City Walk. However the chase itself makes it more fun when you are this penniless blogger who just resigned from work and you are in a financial limbo having been sabotaged by your former employer for preferring to juggle school with work. The one who threatens to have you incarcerated, thereby possibly missing out on your due exams which are first approaching.

So as a measure of foiling the combined guile, you also develop your own strategies to counteract them. Trying to find out who will budge first. Like you find this arrogance unbearable, full of deceit and machinations. You feel it is choreographed and feel like you will revenge. The best revenge is served cold. You have actualized it already, in a manner that in Game Theory results in a Nash Equilibrium.

You know full well ladies have their emotional side that you can easily tune, they talk, and she may have talked to someone about how hurting she has been, like you have been uncaring if her last statement augurs to that translation. At times you muse whether the feeling is mutual or just a passing fade, like if she holds you in high regard the way you also do her. If she does not, then maybe you are chasing after the wind with her. Which you will continue doing until that moment in life when it becomes vanity and you will see her slip from your hands as she will probably find a worthy suitor who is sately chummed to make her feel like the beautiful lady she really is. A guy who will take her to an exquisite holiday in Paris, which makes her develop goose bumps, exhilarate and be filled with child-like excitement as you will be probably looking at the pictures full of envy on IG or FB while she is having her life time experience. Probably singing to Black Eyes Peas ‘The Time’ with that lucky jamaa.

However she aint that type judging by your seasoned knowledge of her.

As for the former employer, I wish I could retract all the bad things I did to him. However, when I want to offer an apology, I think of the people he offended. His callous nature, him calling people animals, failing to aptly pay you though you have dedicated your time and offered services to your able best. Him never appreciating those that strive to see him realize his dreams. He never having an iota of feeling, having raging tempers you probably mirrored and a disgust for hygiene. Even if you are patient, you soon give up because you never achieve much having made you his small slaves without the air of freedom of expression. That you called him ‘Boss’ when the world has moved into a more liberalized air without prefixes or suffixes that give the superior mentality.

In this life, you need not to be chained like you are some form of slave who has to be servile to the whims of someone else. Till that moment when you unfasten yourself from mental bondage that you can only survive under someone, you fail to take advantage of the self as an asset that can marshal a lot of resources that should be capitalized for probable future benefits. You are quasi-free man, because of anger, you have to take full responsibility of my actions.

Amid all these, you will come out strong. Victory is assured, time being the only factor not known. Like Hollywood superheroes after a deadly fight.

HAST LA VISTA, BABY.

[Photo Source: Modified inFamous Movie Poster]

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LIFE LESSONS

I have been forced to quit blogging because of reasons pertaining to my other ambition of never failing in exams again (UON ushered my first taste of academic failure). I have decided henceforth to give blogging a wide berth as I make way for a new lifestyle that will be more hectic and require a rote that I meet targets within the shortest time possible and also work with the swiftness of a gazelle in my aspirations of a debut in being a financial analyst. 

CFA is hectic. You need to be very smart to go about this course which is also very thorough. As a matter of fact, being behind schedule in terms of reading has contributed in yours truly having to give blog posting some form of discontinuity until that point in time in life when the course work will have eased till the wee stages of completion. Whether I will pass the exam or not, something remains for sure, it has taught me a lot in terms of self-discipline. Getting the knowledge is far more enriching as it makes you realize you are a rookie in the financial domain. If life was only tied to passing exams and you sure are going to live a life of merry, then that would be a reason as to why most would be passing the same. But the current world has reinvented itself. You no longer need to pass exams to make it in life like it is an eventuality. You need to find something different that will segregate you from the rest. You can be an actor, play football like the football magician Messi, sell your wares- master the skill and own a flourishing chain of businesses many would want to franchise.

With dedication and patience, everything is possible. Hope that the study timetable I have put in place will be a reason why I will be smiling at the end of a six hour exam that awaits me mid-June in the coming year. As of now, I am pursuing my course of choice. This is a study whose intent was conjured even before I went to campus more than five years ago. Only that the start was unveiled this year.

So what has life taught me up until this point in time?

The first thing has to do with discovery of the self. The greatest investment is to invest in yourself. You never will regret it. What you aim at achieving is only curtailed by the setbacks you create at your own volition. Making important and instrumental decisions earlier on ensures you have enough time to achieve that which you wanted to accomplish early. You become a master of your destiny at the end of it all. Society also, has a way of aiding in that quest. It’s up to you to take the mantle and decide to change your serendipity using all the available machinery you can surmount be it technical, mechanical or electronic. Again, it is of paramount necessity to ensure that people play a crucial role in the course of your achievement because it is they that matter. They can break or make you.

Free-rider mentality.

Who does not want freebies? It’s human nature to love free products and services, which also comes at a social cost. The price of anything that is free or cheap is that the worth you get from it is never satiating as there is always a compromise on standards and quality. Until you develop the taste and preference of finer things in life, living the normal Jane and Joe everyday life will be your eventual respite. They say, when you want something, go for it. Like the Veblen goods, it’s mostly important that life be pegged on continuous development. The most satisfying things in life are worth the penny you spend on the acquisition of the same. The more you spend, however may not be directly related to the much you expect. Life lessons will open your eyes as to what is good and what is not. But at the end of the day, it is also important to take advantage of freely available forms of development. They help save you a lot in terms of time and money. Saving means more wealth. Economics 101 in practice. Right.

Saving

The value of having a saving culture is directly related to prosperity. Though the time value for money is always the inverse of saving, there is greater value in saving some pence no matter how little. The little you save become more and sooner or later, you slowly realize you dream. Those who save really cushion themselves against the rigors of a financial turmoil that is usually unprecedented on a rainy day. There is surety in having a savings culture. From saving, you can turn the little into an investment stream or find worthy advice on what you can engage in with the little. Like the Chinese say, “The journey of a thousand miles stars with a single step.” Quit that unnecessary consumption and spenditure. Punish yourself sometimes so that you do not indulge in that which robs you of your hard earned money. A penny saved is penny earned. For in saving there is a way of evading debt.

Working

Working as opposed to staying idle is something that is very important. Each day, you see different people (as you commute or walk the streets) and observe queer tendencies that are developing gradually. You may sometimes be disinterested in you work looking for an option but the reality is that it is better to stick around for some time. You never know, just when you are on the verge of quitting, is when some godsend comes. However, also staying does not guarantee that you will change much in life. When you are experiencing periods of stagnation without much progress, it is important to review your strategy. The most important workplace in the world is the aura you create for yourself. Working for yourself is tentatively the best thing in life. You get satisfaction if the results are progressive. Soon or later, you gain ground and have the nerves to do just about anything. Life is about moving forward. When you become a stickler to the status quo, you lose a lot.

Blogging/ Writing

Hitherto, my thoughts on this was that I would make it just like that. This is hell. This though, caught my eye and really is a reflection of what I am experiencing personally,

 “I am like a violinist whose ear is true, but whose fingers refuse to reproduce precisely the sound he hears within.”- Gustave Flaubert.

There are times when as a writer, doing my blog post, am forced to steal one or two phrases because I lack the diction of how to give my all when another has done it easily much to my envy. Writing is one of the best things life has bestowed upon mankind. When you write, you enter into a world of the unknown then progressively enter the world of the known. Thoughts are usually skewed and muddled before piecing up everything. The only recourse is that you are never alone. There is always that déjà vu moment. Writing is addictive, like Indian hemp, you need a rehab to stop the devastating effects of its hallucinations from making you habituated. In fact, getting an inkling is itself a retrospection about how you view where you are headed in general. Thus everything about writing has a muse in it. Like a duck you remain calm on the surface, but underneath, you paddle like hell. Obviously every writer or pen pusher has a predilection and creed.

Studying

There is no procedure on how to study effectively. One man’s poison is another man’s meat. As such, it goes without doubt that the tactics one employs may not necessarily work for another. Studying for exams is a complex affair. However the major facet of it in intensive reading. How one peruses is ideally best determined by him or her. For purposes of this writing, I also have just started to muster the hours I am productive. There is always a brighter side to gaining knowledge.  The best thing about is that you never lose it. It is the only possession that a brigand can never rob you, unless you are incapacitated. So knowledge is power. The only inhibition is that to acquire it, you sometimes need enough backs in this capitalistic world. Studying even for leisure is fair enough. So getting informed is an enriching venture after all.

Entertainment

There is no enough measure of entertainment. The definition of the same also varies. What makes one lively makes another sullen and predisposed. However, there is this thing called ale that inebriates. Boozing is not bad if it does not the body and brain devastatingly. However, when it is not done right, it fails to elicit its intended purpose. Drinking cheap liquor has devastating consequences. The downside of it is in the fact that you are not able to sometimes control your mental sanity. You end up spitting vile or acting incongruous as opposed to being sane. Those are the times you find yourself in dingy places where the average person has no better form of purpose other than drinking away all the worries and stigma away. You may end up drinking illicit concoctions, or worse find yourself under the arm of a seductress who you took advantage of or the inverse and you spend like a nouveau riche thinking you have but only leading yourself to obscurity. At best, drinking fine liquor with brand names work out fine. You never wake up with a hangover after a few tots. Over indulging in the same is comparable to taking cheap liquor.

Avoiding alcohol when you can at all costs is the surest way out of trouble.

Maybe, I should have tweaked this life lessons a little bit to give the reflection of the everyday guy. But this is the best that I can give in my current state. Like I have said earlier, I serve all the purposes in this blog. I am the number reader of the content that is available on it and also the editor, the graphic designer, web designer and all that. I am taking a brief leave to concentrate on my studies as earlier intimated maybe until next year if I will not have the push from some inner calling to write.

Na juu ya hiyo story, Buda Boss Sinakafunge juu kamenyuria.

Hasta La Vista Baby.

[Picture Source: My Own]

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