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That’s
the slogan of our boss back at work. Every time he utters those words,
something is usually cooking. I usually never know how the line should end but
most colleagues usually say they might get ‘worse’. On the other hand, I
usually think they might get ‘better’. In the sense that I try to see an
opportunity even when all seem to be gloomy and circumstances suggesting that
the worse times are more than imminent.
The
banking industry has undergone a radical shift in the way has been operating in
the recent past. There is a Kenyan mentality of living in denial because we are
used to situations remaining the same. We never want to accept change. When
they come, they sometimes catch us unawares because the imminent impact is not
taken into consideration. That means there are causalities who sack is at the
mercy of the human resource.
Allow
me to allude to the possible crisis that was envisioned during the Brexit. At
that time, I was busy preparing for my exams and because I had got tired of
perusal, I decided to pour over some gen on investments online to buffer the
academic knowledge than I was gaining through ebooks. I noticed a plebiscite
that was to take place in Britain, it was to be held in few months. It was
still hot news and I shared the same tidings on my LinkedIn profile.
The
reason why I shared the information was because I was among the doubting
Thomas’s as to the possibility of Britain exiting the European Union. Given
that I love statistics, I closely followed the survey and it was a close to
call poll. Those for an exit took the day. However, as opposed to us Kenyans
where we never look at the financial impact of a move we make, the World was
prepared for either scenario with most thinking the status quo would prevail.
I
remember reading an article where retired analysts were recalled from their superannuation
or wherever they were secluded in to go aid in containing the debilitating
effects of a possible rundown in the financial markets. Let me surmise on this
because I have shaky facts from the internet. The London market is the largest
when it comes to forex. It accounts for more than twenty present of the same in
the world. Given that the pound is the strongest currency in the whole world,
there was going to be devastating rippling effects which needed to be monitored
lest the world succumbs to a financial crisis only reminiscent to the 2008
meltdown.
In
the long run, the Brexit being a world changer, the situation that was delicate
was able to be ameliorated by mitigating the effects which would have led to a
crisis.
The
scenario is almost similar to the Kenyan case of interest rates being capped
(in economics, it’s called ceiling). Previous attempts to cap interest rates
flopped because of reasons that can be presumed to be economic in the sense
that there will always be imbalances between the quantity demanded and the
quantity supplied when there is an interest rate ceiling. Then net effect is
that productivity will be affected because the loan book of most banks has been
nonperforming which has led to a scenario where standing orders are not
accepted anymore. Banks only allow for a check off system between the bank and
the employer where they do not have to undergo the torture of finding no money
in an individual’s bank account who owe them given that some people may forfeit
their obligations by withdrawing all the income from their account rendering
the standing orders void.
There
is also the brown paper argument that as long as the legislators are culpable
to easily being oiled, they could easily be bank rolled by some banks not to
pass the bill and ensure the status quo prevails.
Hitherto,
there were staff who were thinking that the president would not accent to the
Banking Bill because he has interests in the banking sector. The day he signed
the bill, he aided in bringing the country at par with what was witnessed in
the developed world long ago because interest rates have a ceiling to reduce on
banks turning to being shylocks literally. I had initially thought that banks
were prepared for the imminent repercussions. On the contrary they were caught
unawares.
It
is at this point that they have returned back to the boardroom to strategize on
how to reduce on some products and gain on some. As for the bank I work for,
there was an imminent tsunami that came in the sense that the parent company
was going to walk away. That was devastating but what is now irking is the fact
that some heads have to roll. It may start with this blogger who was intending
to use the avenue to further his people skills and possibly add onto the
experience of working for a multinational company.
I
remember watching how the staff who worked for Lehman Brothers were exciting from
their trading and various offices after the bank went under after the recent
financial meltdown that turned into a boon for the investment banks that
remained in the industry on ‘The Big Short’. That’s how some of us will be at
the end of the month given that resizing is a must. It has come to us on the
pretext of change. We have to accept it whether we like it or not. Those who
fail to change will be like the once juggernaut of the computer world, HP. It
has been struggling for the last part of the decade with dwindling sales and
probable capital flight because of the business as usual mentality.
For
quite some time, banks have always been very conservative. They have been
making profits which looked farfetched because you need to ensure you act is right
to attract investors who want a share through dividends, failure of which they
will shift base to industries that have a performing balance sheet.
There
is this theory in economics that the higher the demand the higher the price
will be. That’s from an investment perspective. However, the theory of demand
and supply states that the lower the price the higher the demand. Given that
most people end up mimicking the behaviours of top investors in the country in
which they are in, the result is either herding or information cascade.
Anyway,
I love investments. I also love it when you have a basis for making a decision
which should be forecasted whether or not the result will be favouring or
impeding the strides achieved. As a matter of fact, it should be prudent to
have analysts who will look at various scenarios to advice accordingly on the
way forward before a given scenario comes into force.
As
for the banks, they should have projected this very early on. There are people
who are paid to idle around checking mails and attending meetings to strategize
without using serious statistical data. Already, the shares of various banks
are plummeting and they will continue doing so for the next couple of days
before the situation turns alluring again. Which reminds me that there are
contrarian investors who will reap big once the banks have put their act
together.
I
presume that in the event banks in Kenya had done exactly what the big banks in
the world had done on the days preceding the enactment of the Banking Bill into
law as the big banks had done by monitoring the situation day and night without
rest during Brexit, the net effect would have been manageable. Some risks would
have been reduced and mitigation measures taken in the short term to ensure the
situation does not deteriorate like it has done almost going to the dogs.
What’s
petrifying is the fact that there are some employees in the banking sector
whose lives will never be the same again. Just when the sector had picked up
and they were enjoying the fruits is when they have to face the axe. It’s worse
for those who were raking in millions and had no alternative source of income.
Such individuals may have taken mortgages, bought fuel guzzlers, registered to
be members of posh clubs where they pay an arm and leg to sustain the status
quo, some may have even taken their tots to the best international schools in
the country where the curriculum is Bri’sh as a show of might.
I
guess the individual whose fate hangs on the balance is my immediate boss.
Being the guy in charge of individuals who were doing credit cards only, it
looks like the scenario will be grim before it turns attractive in the short
term. I must say that I was among the few guys who got the privilege of being
feted by him for having made sales before the card business was discontinued
until further notice. Just like the others in the business, he does not know
his fate. I remember listening to his pastime and felt like working for the
bank for some time to get to a better position that comes with perks before I
roll my sleeves and call it a day.
Like
the guy is a member of a golf club, occasionally goes for exotic holidays,
loves outdoor activity every weekend, raves during the weekdays in various high
end clubs in town and still never realizes that it is payday. As opposed to
him, I easily monitor the days because by midmonth, I am usually so beat up
financially that I cannot easily cough a K for other obligations without
feeling a pinch. He is even planning of going for the Malindi skydive yet he is
barely 40. That’s kind of enviable especially when you are doing it with your
own bucks.
As
I wait for my fate which again is at a limbo, I am awed at the much I have
learnt for the little while I have been working with many people in one room,
though I will miss them. There are those who tell you stories they have gone
through you feel like they would pen the same down and give it to you to update
on your blog because they encourage and you realize you have yet to go through
the worst scenarios.
Like
a very sweet colleague told me of how she was able to get a first class yet
there was a time her child broke her leg after landing from two floors while
she was revising for exams. It was almost the same period she had delivered her
last baby and had to go for exams, pick her tot after exams to go and take care
of her other baby in the hospital who had broken a leg. Yet she still scored
straight A’s during that semester which is not a mean feat while undergoing all
that frustration and stress.
There
is also this colleague who was seduced by a certain lady neighbour who was HIV
positive in the ‘ploti’ they lived but since he was aware of her status after
stumbling upon a note book where she had written about how her travail with the
virus, he decided not to be amorous by putting his family also at risk. The
lady had gone to his room with a night dress while his wife had gone to shags
in hope that she would lure him but God has a way of protecting his people.
What
encouraged me the most is a colleague I sit next to who told me that we are not
going to be exiting but continuing with our jobs. She narrated a certain
anecdote of a certain lady who dreamt that she will be eating the ripe fruits
with her husband who was due for promotion. The promotion came with training in
the forest where his life was not going to be guaranteed given it was always a
risky venture as his hubby was a cop. The husband never went to the forest and
was instead attached within the training institution at a senior level and they
moved to a sole house where there was an avocado tree and they would sit down
and relish when he was free from the daily hustle. It’s these kind of miracles
that makes us strong
That’s
life, whether or not I will be exciting from the scene, there is so much I have
learnt. Obviously, even if I stay, it will never be the same again. I will have
to reorganize myself before the ax comes calling. Given that this will be
another long stretch; I am upbeat that I will still come out strong. Life in
itself is a risk; the risk starts at conception. So as I mull over what waits
yours truly, allow me to end with my signature phrase.
Hasta
La Vista Baby.
[Picture
Source: Google Images]
