Let me keep it simple

Tuesday, 19 April 2016

MONTE CARLO FALLACY


The broke me is contemplating starting a career in gambling. No! am just a noble speculator. The only problem with this kind of speculation or gambling is that there are no derivatives or a way to transfer risk so that you are not left despondent by hedging against the risk of losing money. I am contemplating joining one of the many football betting sites to try my hand in being a millionaire. And I want to gamble with other people’s money.  Yo! Mshwari, allow me to take this risk. When I get mullahs, you will also be smiling, right.


Obviously you are wondering why I will use loaned money to play. Practically, I have no money of my own. I am a lazy bone. I love freebies. So I have no margin to seize a probable get rich quick gamble. Since getting a job has been quite a tussle on my side. And here is why. I have contemplated going for mjengo, or car washing. But the moment I think about the same, I usually feel debased and weary. But I need money. Money to print a CV and a cover letter. I don’t believe in employment bureaus because they take money away from me. I also need money to photocopy my certificates. And some money to drop the relevant documents to the places I am interested in jump-starting a career in. Sadly it would be gloomy for me if a prospective employer heard I am into gambling. But I have a ready answer.


The other problem is that I don’t feel like working for any firm at the moment. I do not have the acumen to engage in a business and lastly, I am impatient because taking an initiative has been dreary. I have been impatient for quite a long time. Years are passing and my status has not ameliorated yet am tormenting myself undergoing mental drudgery all in the name of getting an education. Will I quit the quest? No. Notwithstanding that I am still stuck in a rut. I think that this revelation is worthy for a guy who wants to venture in a career of gambling.


As such, I am on a mission to be inducted into the career of gambling. But first, I have to finish my studies. Gambling will start once I have completed my studies which is less than a month’s time. I hope that gambling will sustain my rent, help me go places and find new interests.


Why gambling you may ask? Everything you do in life has a reason. I want to make easy and quick money. There are times I will lose, there are times I will gain. And there are times I will cry. Plus the process only involves sitting and looking at previous results, analyzing and making projections. I think am smart enough given that I know about permutations and combinations and probability and Venn diagrams and stochastic processes. I wish I could be able to perform simulations that are devoid of regrets, like Monte Carlo, huh. Anyway, those are just wishes.


You have heard naysayers with their malevolent insinuations degrade betting. They have their own reason why they spite what is ethically right given that the government gets taxes, people are employed through the betting institutions, the few lucky fellows smile all the way to the bank and people who sure bet with positive results are able to meet their short term deficits. Forget about match fixers.


On the flip-side, we have seen guys who have hanged themselves, having lost their money which is also comparable to banking your money given the high volatility with which many banks are being liquidated and finances lost. There is also the ominous effects of addiction. Which I am sure will make me captive betrothed in it once I start betting.


But who cares, man must survive. If this is not right ethically, then it should not have be instituted and sanctioned in the first place. So like any fellow who needs petty cash for survival, after am through with my exam, trust you me, gambling is the way to go.


PS: Monte Carlo fallacy is a posh name as opposed to gambling. It makes it look like some nerdy engagement though the photo discredits the whole ideology of this procedure first used out during nuclear probabilistic trials.



Hasta La Vista Baby.


[Photo Source: Google Images]
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