Let me keep it simple

Thursday, 16 May 2024

A Chance, Kidney and Success

Most of us live in the musty footnotes of history. You exit the stage and become a bygone. You swiftly blend into a statistic, lost in the vast sea of data, irretrievable, and anonymous. In contrast, it is easy to pinpoint a heroic individual. That one person who never gets relegated to the dusty annals of history. His deeds are legendary and leave an indelible mark deeply felt and etched at the back of our minds. He leaves behind a rich legacy that lingers persistently in our consciousness, a testament to his unforgettable character. With his unique flair and charisma, he captivates us effortlessly. This person could be a speaker who made you laugh or moved you to tears, or a figure from a book, like Napoleon or Alexander the Great, whose influence remains vivid and unforgettable.

He is calm and measured, avoiding the explosive temper and hyperaggressive demeanor that can make those around him anxious. He makes you feel at ease, fostering a sense of tranquility that enhances conversational engagement, and his articulate, succinct speech makes you an excellent listener. He instills a sense of safety, making you comfortable enough to openly share your secrets without fear of future repercussions. He embodies the adage, "Heroes are celebrated for their heroic deeds, not for their victories or defeats." Despite a potentially tarnished reputation as a philanderer, when he sets his mind on something, he achieves it with remarkable success.

As you trudge through the journey of life, remember: "That which came with the help of luck will be taken away by luck." If you've ever read about lottery winners, you'll notice a common trait among them. Their newfound wealth is often rapidly and unexpectedly squandered because they tend to take excessive risks and make poor decisions associated with gambling. They are bereft of knowledge to steward their sudden windfall, leading them to splurge under a numbing false sense of security. Such an individual does not observe the barrel of reality regarding the fleeting nature of wealth. Easy come, easy go.

In a civilized society, there are many avenues for putting your megamillions into good use. An individual who has won 100 million overnight, probably after two years of betting, may consider himself a successful gambler. Ideally, this may distort your perception as it is not the reality of your prowess. It is a mistaken belief. When you cast a bet, there is a way it corrupts your mind. You think you are a winner and good strategist when in reality, it might just be a result of a stochastic process. Unlike Russian Roulette, which offers a 5/6 chance of survival, or a single football match with a 1/3 chance of predicting the outcome correctly, most gambling scenarios are unpredictable. A deep understanding of Monte Carlo methods is crucial to astutely making precise calculations, navigating the probabilities, mastering the odds, and determining an ideal bet size that wins when you wager.

The route less traveled is the lengthy and reliable one, yet the allure of shortcuts often overshadows this more secure path. We are conditioned to believe that the more perilous and treacherous the journey, the easier it is to achieve success. If you couple this with reducing the number of steps beyond the norm, you might be hailed as a genius. Consider the stark difference between a dentist and a gambler in how they make money. The dentist earns his wealth through a diligent and skillful process, drilling people's teeth and relying on his expertise and the location of his clinic. If a gambler and a dentist both have a similar amount of money, they might seem equally rich on paper. However, we often overlook the process behind their wealth. The dentist's earnings come from hard work and skill, while the gambler's fortune is through the whims of chance.

The dentist's wealth is the culmination of years of diligent study, perfecting his craft, and building a customer base. In the realm of finance, having a loyal customer base adds significant value to an entity's net worth. The wealth the dentist has accumulated is not dependent on randomness like that of the gambler. It is qualitatively different, reflecting years of sustained effort and experience. It is not a fragile glass house that shatters with a single stone. In contrast, the gambler's newfound fortune is akin to a precarious stack of cards, which can tumble from the slightest disturbance, since it lacks a solid base. Nowadays, gamblers are often euphemistically referred to as 'investors,' but the underlying reality of their wealth remains dicey.

A dentist possesses a strong work ethic, modus operandi, and stability. He probably has a dull career and is the epitome of the suburban family man. Still, he surprises you with the intellectual depth and sharpness of mind akin to an aerobics instructor. Aside from the millions in accumulated savings, his investment portfolio likely includes treasury bonds, bills, real estate, and a diverse range of stocks that yield steady income. Furthermore, he seeks advice from tax experts, estate lawyers, and reputable individuals of robust intellectual energy. The idea is to safeguard accumulated wealth from natural uncertainties and the potential depletion of assets. After all, there are countless ways to deplete funds compared to the avenues available for generating it.

On the other hand, the gambler may indulge in extravagance, misled by an illusion of stability. Driven by a desire to flaunt his newfound fortune, he might move to a wealthy neighborhood and expect admiration for his rags-to-riches story. In the gambling arena, they may perceive themselves as smart, but they are passé. He may adopt hobbies like wine collecting and listening to jazz music, believing they reflect his newfound sophistication. Soon, the gambler develops a 'refined' taste, fantasizing about exotic locations, seeking admiration from superficial sources like fatuous journalists, and imagining himself on the Forbes list of top billionaires.

However, the gambler remains unaware of the ignoble risk he's taking—the risk of losing everything. He might even leave his wife for an Instagram commercial model who fits into his new high-status way of living, abandoning a relationship deemed too ordinary and human amid his desire for a more glamorous lifestyle.

Hasta La Vista, Baby.

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